Ka kholo ea 5G, AI le limmaraka tsa k'homphieutha tse sebetsang hantle, tlhokahalo ea bajari ba IC, haholo-holo bajari ba ABF, e phatlohile.Leha ho le joalo, ka lebaka la bokhoni bo fokolang ba barekisi ba amehang, phepelo ea ABF
bajari ba haella mme theko e ntse e phahama.Indasteri e lebeletse hore bothata ba phepelo e thata ea lipoleiti tsa ABF e ka tsoela pele ho fihlela 2023. Tabeng ena, limela tse 'nè tse kholo tsa ho jara lipoleiti tsa Taiwan, Xinxing, Nandian, Jingshuo le Zhending KY, li qalile merero ea katoloso ea ABF ea ho kenya lipoleiti selemong sena. kakaretso ea tšebeliso ea chelete e fetang NT $65 bilione (e ka bang RMB 15.046 bilione) limela tsa naha le tsa Taiwan.Ho feta moo, Ibiden le Shinko tsa Japane, Samsung motor le Dade electronics tsa Korea Boroa li ekelitse letsete la tsona ho lipoleiti tsa thepa tsa ABF.
Tlhokahalo le theko ea boto ea bajari ba ABF e nyoloha haholo, mme khaello e ka tsoela pele ho fihlela 2023
IC substrate e etsoa motheong oa HDI board (high-density interconnection circuit board), e nang le litšoaneleho tsa boleng bo phahameng, ho nepahala ho phahameng, miniaturization le tšesaane.Joalo ka lisebelisoa tse mahareng tse hokahanyang chip le boto ea potoloho ts'ebetsong ea ho paka chip, mosebetsi oa mantlha oa boto ea bajari ba ABF ke ho etsa puisano e phahameng ea khokahano le chip, ebe o hokahana le boto e kholo ea PCB ka mela e mengata. ho IC carrier board, e phethang karolo ea ho hokahanya, e le ho sireletsa botšepehi ba potoloho, ho fokotsa ho lutla, ho lokisa boemo ba mohala Ho thusa ho fokotsa mocheso o motle oa chip ho sireletsa chip, esita le ho kenya letsoho le ho sebetsa. lisebelisoa ho finyella mesebetsi e itseng ea tsamaiso.
Hajoale, lebaleng la liphutheloana tsa maemo a holimo, IC carrier e fetohile karolo ea bohlokoahali ea ho paka li-chip.Lintlha li bontša hore hajoale, karolo ea IC carrier ka litšenyehelo tsa ho paka ka kakaretso e fihlile hoo e ka bang 40%.
Har'a bajari ba IC, haholo-holo ho na le bajari ba ABF (Ajinomoto build up film) le bajari ba BT ho latela litsela tse fapaneng tsa tekheniki tse kang CLL resin system.
Har'a bona, boto ea bajari ba ABF e sebelisoa haholo bakeng sa lisebelisoa tse phahameng tsa komporo tse joalo ka CPU, GPU, FPGA le ASIC.Kamora hore litsupa tsena li hlahisoe, hangata li hloka ho phutheloa ho boto ea bajari ba ABF pele li ka bokelloa ka boto e kholo ea PCB.Hang ha mochine oa ABF o felile, bahlahisi ba ka sehloohong ba kenyeletsang Intel le AMD ba ke ke ba phonyoha qetello ea hore chip e ke ke ea romeloa.Bohlokoa ba ho tsamaisa ABF bo ka bonoa.
Ho tloha halofo ea bobeli ea selemo se fetileng, ka lebaka la kholo ea 5g, cloud AI computing, li-server le limmaraka tse ling, tlhokahalo ea lisebelisoa tse phahameng tsa k'homphieutha (HPC) e eketsehile haholo.Ho kopantsoe le kholo ea tlhokahalo ea mmaraka ea liofisi tsa lapeng / boithabiso, makoloi le mebaraka e meng, tlhoko ea li-chips tsa CPU, GPU le AI ka lehlakoreng la terminal e eketsehile haholo, e leng se phahamisitseng tlhoko ea liboto tsa bajari ba ABF.Ho kopantsoe le phello ea kotsi ea mollo fekthering ea Ibiden Qingliu, fektheri e kholo ea thepa ea IC, le fektheri ea Xinxing Electronic Shanying, bajari ba ABF lefatšeng ba haelloa ke chelete e ngata.
Ka Hlakola selemong sena, ho ne ho e-na le litaba 'marakeng tsa hore lipoleiti tse tsamaisang ABF li ne li haella haholo,' me potoloho ea ho fana e bile nako e telele joalo ka libeke tse 30.Ka phepelo e khuts'oane ea poleiti e tsamaisang ABF, theko le eona e ile ea tsoela pele ho nyoloha.Lintlha li bonts'a hore ho tloha kotara ea bone ea selemo se fetileng, theko ea boto ea bajari ba IC e 'nile ea tsoela pele ho phahama, ho kenyelletsa le BT carrier board hoo e ka bang 20%, ha ABF e ntse e phahama ka 30% - 50%.
Kaha matla a sepalangoang sa ABF a le matsohong a baetsi ba 'maloa ba Taiwan, Japane le Korea Boroa, katoloso ea bona ea tlhahiso le eona e ne e fokola nakong e fetileng, e leng se etsang hore ho be thata ho fokotsa khaello ea phepelo ea ABF nakong e khuts'oane. nako.
Ka hona, bahlahisi ba bangata ba ho paka le ho etsa liteko ba ile ba qala ho fana ka maikutlo a hore bareki ba ho qetela ba fetole mokhoa oa ho etsa li-module tse ling ho tloha ts'ebetsong ea BGA e hlokang hore mopalami oa ABF a tsamaisane le ts'ebetso ea QFN, e le ho qoba ho lieha ha thomello ka lebaka la ho se khone ho hlophisa bokhoni ba mokhanni oa ABF. .
Baetsi ba thepa ba boletse hore hajoale, feme e 'ngoe le e' ngoe e tsamaisang thepa ha e na sebaka se lekaneng sa ho ikopanya le litaelo leha e le life tsa "queue jumping" ka theko e phahameng ea yuniti, 'me ntho e' ngoe le e 'ngoe e laoloa ke bareki bao pele ba neng ba netefatsa bokhoni.Hona joale bareki ba bang ba bile ba buile ka bokhoni le 2023,
Pejana, tlaleho ea lipatlisiso ea Goldman Sachs e boetse e bonts'itse hore le hoja matla a atolositsoeng a ABF carrier ea IC Carrier Nandian ho semela sa Kunshan naheng ea China e lebelletsoe ho qala kotareng ea bobeli ea selemo sena, ka lebaka la ho atolosoa ha nako ea ho fana ka lisebelisoa tse hlokahalang bakeng sa tlhahiso. katoloso ho fihla likhoeling tse 8 ~ 12, matla a sejari sa ABF lefatšeng ka bophara a eketsehile ka 10% ~ 15% feela selemong sena, empa tlhoko ea 'maraka e ntse e tsoela pele ho ba matla,' me lekhalo ka kakaretso la tlhokeho ea phepelo le lebelletsoe ho ba thata ho le fokotsa ka 2022.
Lilemong tse peli tse tlang, ka kholo e tsoelang pele ea tlhoko ea li-PC, li-server tsa maru le li-chips tsa AI, tlhoko ea bajari ba ABF e tla tsoela pele ho eketseha.Ho feta moo, kaho ea marang-rang a lefatše a 5g e tla boela e je palo e kholo ea bajari ba ABF.
Ho phaella moo, ka ho fokotseha ha molao oa Moore, baetsi ba li-chip le bona ba ile ba qala ho sebelisa theknoloji e tsoetseng pele ea ho paka ho tsoela pele ho ntšetsa pele melemo ea moruo ea molao oa Moore.Mohlala, thekenoloji ea Chiplet, e ntlafalitsoeng ka matla indastering, e hloka boholo bo boholo ba sejari sa ABF le tlhahiso e tlase ea tlhahiso.Ho lebelletsoe hore e tla ntlafatsa le ho feta tlhokeho ea mopalami oa ABF.Ho latela se boletsoeng esale pele sa Tuopu Industry Research Institute, karolelano ea tlhoko ea khoeli le khoeli ea lipoleiti tse tsamaisang thepa ea ABF e tla hola ho tloha ho limilione tse 185 ho isa ho limilione tse 345 ho tloha 2019 ho isa 2023, ka sekhahla sa kholo ea selemo le selemo sa 16.9%.
Lifeme tse kholo tse kenyang lipoleiti li ekelitse tlhahiso ea tsona ka ho latellana
Ka lebaka la khaello e tsoelang pele ea lipoleiti tse tsamaisang ABF hajoale le kholo e tsoelang pele ea tlhokahalo ea mmaraka nakong e tlang, baetsi ba bane ba kholo ba IC carrier Taiwan, Xinxing, Nandian, jingshuo le Zhending KY, ba phatlalalitse merero ea katoloso ea tlhahiso selemong sena. kakaretso ea tšebeliso ea chelete e fetang NT $65 bilione (e ka bang RMB 15.046 bilione) e tla tseteloa lifemeng tse naheng e kholo le Taiwan.Ho feta moo, Ibiden le Shinko tsa Japane le tsona li phethetse merero ea katoloso ea li-yen tse limilione tse likete tse 180 le li-yen tse libilione tse 90 ka ho latellana.Lisebelisoa tsa elektroniki tsa Samsung tsa Korea Boroa le Dade le tsona li ekelitse matsete a tsona.
Har'a limela tse 'nè tse tšehelitsoeng ke IC tsa IC, chelete e kholo ka ho fetisisa ea lichelete selemong sena e ne e le Xinxing, semela se ka sehloohong, se fihlileng ho NT $ 36.221 limilione tse likete (hoo e ka bang RMB 8.884 limilione tse likete), e leng karolo ea 50% ea chelete eohle ea lichelete tsa limela tse' nè, le keketseho e kholo ea 157% ha e bapisoa le NT $ 14.087 bilione selemong se fetileng.Xinxing e phahamisitse tšebeliso ea eona ea chelete ka makhetlo a mane selemong sena, e totobatsa boemo ba hajoale ba hore mmaraka o haella.Ho feta moo, Xinxing e saenetse likonteraka tsa nako e telele tsa lilemo tse tharo le bareki ba bang ho qoba kotsi ea ho fetoha ha tlhoko ea 'maraka.
Nandian o rerile ho sebelisa bonyane NT $ 8 limilione tse likete (hoo e ka bang RMB 1.852 limilione tse likete) ho chelete ea selemo sena, ka keketseho ea selemo le selemo ho feta 9%.Ka nako e ts'oanang, e tla boela e phethahatse morero oa matsete oa NT $ 8 limilione tse likete lilemong tse peli tse tlang ho atolosa mohala oa thepa oa ABF oa semela sa Taiwan Shulin.E lebelletsoe ho bula bokhoni bo bocha ba ho kenya boto ho tloha bofelong ba 2022 ho isa 2023.
Ka lebaka la tšehetso e matla ea k'hamphani ea motsoali Heshuo sehlopha, Jingshuo e atolositse ka mafolofolo matla a tlhahiso ea ABF carrier.Litšenyehelo tsa lichelete tsa selemo sena, ho kenyelletsa le ho reka mobu le katoloso ea tlhahiso, ho hakanngoa hore e tla feta NT $ 10 limilione tse likete, ho kenyelletsa le NT $ 4.485 limilione tse likete ho reka mobu le mehaho e Myrica rubra.Ha e kopantsoe le matsete a mantlha a ho reka lisebelisoa le ts'ebetso ea debottlenecking bakeng sa ho atolosoa ha mopalami oa ABF, kakaretso ea litšenyehelo tsa lichelete e lebelletsoe ho eketseha ka ho feta 244% ha e bapisoa le selemong se fetileng, hape ke setsi sa bobeli sa thepa Taiwan e feta NT $10 bilione.
Tlas'a leano la ho reka ka nako e le 'ngoe lilemong tsa morao tjena, sehlopha sa Zhending ha sea ka sa atleha feela ho etsa phaello ho tsoa khoebong e teng ea BT mme se tsoela pele ho eketsa matla a eona a ho hlahisa habeli, empa ka hare se phethela leano la lilemo tse hlano la moralo oa mokhanni le ho qala ho hatakela. ho sejari sa ABF.
Le ha katoloso e kholo ea Taiwan ea matla a bajari ba ABF, merero e meholo ea katoloso ea bokhoni ba bajari ba Japane le Korea Boroa le eona e ntse e eketseha haufinyane.
Ibiden, k'hamphani e kholo ea lipoleiti naheng ea Japane, e phethetse leano la katoloso ea li-yen tse limilione tse likete tse 180 (e ka bang li-yuan tse limilione tse likete tse 10.606), ka sepheo sa ho theha boleng ba tlhahiso ea li-yen tse fetang limilione tse likete tse 250 ka 2022, e lekanang le US $ 2.13 billion.Shinko, moetsi e mong oa thepa oa Japane le morekisi oa bohlokoa oa Intel, le eena o phethetse leano la katoloso la li-yen tse limilione tse likete tse 90 (li-yuan tse ka bang limilione tse likete tse 5.303).Ho lebelletsoe hore matla a bajari a tla eketseha ka 40% ka 2022 mme lekhetho le tla fihla ho US $ 1.31 bilione.
Ntle le moo, koloi ea Samsung ea Korea Boroa e ekelitse karolo ea chelete ea ho kenya lipoleiti ho feta 70% selemong se fetileng mme e tsoela pele ho tsetela.Dade electronics, e leng semela se seng sa Korea Boroa se kenyang lipoleiti, le eona e fetotse polante ea eona ea HDI hore e be setsi sa ho kenya lipoleiti tsa ABF, ka sepheo sa ho eketsa chelete e kenang ka bonyane $ 130 milione ka 2022.
Nako ea poso: Aug-26-2021